Sunday, April 7, 2013

Due Diligence: The Importance of Risk Management

When it comes making an investment, managing your risk can affected your trade in ways you never thought possible. And in this business of trading stocks, risk management is one of, if not THE, most important aspect of the business. Because at the end of the day, all we are doing as traders, is determining how much money we are willing to risk, to try and turn a profit.

The first, and most important, thing you need to figure out when you are managing your risk, is how much money you are willing to risk losing on a single trade. This % will most likely be different for each trader since some can afford to lose more than others, but for the most part people usually will risk 2% on the conservative side, up to 5% if they are feeling a little more aggressive and can afford the loss.

At first it may seem like there can't be that big of a difference in risking 2%, compared to 5%, compared to even 10%, but over the long run, it can make a WORLD of difference. 

Just take a look at this chart below . This is showing the difference between what % of your account you will need to make back after only 4 losing trades in a row to just break even. 



After only 4 losing trades, risking 10%, you would need to make over an astonishing 50% of your equity just to BREAK EVEN! Where as if you properly manage your risk, and only risk 2% of your equity each trade, you will only need to make 8.42% of your equity to break even.

There is a TREMENDOUS difference between having to only make 8% of your equity, compared to 50% of your equity. It will be drastically harder to recover from 4 losing trades in row(which is very common) if you need to make 50% of your account, than it will be if you only need to make 8%. And I don't know about you but I would much rather only have to make 8%, compared to 50%.

The second major thing managing your risk can affect is your position size. A lot of traders, I know I used to do this, just buy 1000 shares of XYZ, no matter what the price is in relation to where they set their stop loss.

For example lets say XYZ is trading in a range of 2.07 a share to 2.15 a share. And you determined that you will cut your loss if the stock dips to 2.02.

Now most people(including my old self) would likely buy 1000 shares of XYZ if it was at 2.07, 2.09, or 2.15. It doesn't matter the price, because in my head I want 1000 shares so I can make 10 dollars a point.

This is how most people trade. They will buy 1000 shares of XYZ no matter where it is in relation to their stop loss. But the trader who knows how to manage his risk, know his position size will very different depending on the price he buys the stock.

For example, Lets say our trader is willing to risk 2% of his account on this trade(so $100) and his stop loss is set at 2.02.

Lets say he can buy the stock at 2.12, and is only wanting to risk losing $100 if the stock goes to 2.02. he will buy 1000 shares.

Now lets say he can buy the stock at 2.07, and he still only wants to risk losing $100 if the stock goes to 2.02. He would then buy 2000 shares.

In both examples each trader is only risking $100 dollars if the trade goes to 2.02. But each traders position sizes are drastically different. This is because of Risk Management.
This is how knowing how to manage your risk, can greatly affect your position size.

My old self would buy 1000 shares whether I could get it at 2.12 or 2.07. But now since I know how to manage my risk, I know that I can buy 2000 shares if the stock is at 2.07, and I should only buy 1000 shares if it is at 2.12, and even if the trade goes wrong, I will still only lose 100 dollars, even though the position sizes are totally different.

I hope this shows any traders reading this how important managing your risk is. Because at the end of the day, there is a big difference in having to make 50% of your account to break even, and having to make 8% to break even. Just like there is a big difference between buying 1000 shares, and 2000 shares. And if you know how to properly manage your risk, your loss will still only be $100, whether you bought 1000 shares, or 2000 shares.

Remember Folks, always do your make sure to do your Due Diligence!

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Due Diligence Report: Chinese Housing And Land Development, Inc. (CHLN) - The Housing Rocket Ready to Launch.

If you have been watching housing sector the last six months then you must have noticed Chinese HGS Real Estate, Inc(HGSH). This chinese housing stock, which is now trading at about $10.50/share, was just $0.50/share back in November 2012. And it has been going straight up since. Take a look at the chart below.

12 Month Daily Chart



As you can see this stock has been ripping it up. And on top of that the housing market has started to turn around.

Now some of y'all may be wondering why I am bring up HGSH, and if this report is about CHLN.

Like I said before, since the housing market has been turning around, the sectors been heating up, and with HGSH pushing new highs every day, this has created the perfect environment/set up for a sympathy play.

And thats where Chinese Housing And Land Development, Inc. (CHLN) comes in.

12 Month Daily Chart



The first, and very obvious reason, why CHLN is a good sympathy play is because, just like HGSH, it is a chinese housing stock. And since the market has been loving chinese housing plays, according to HGSH's chart, it makes perfect since that their attention will soon turn to CHLN.

The second reason why CHLN is such a good candidate for a sympathy play, is what makes it truly explosive!

During last quarters earnings report HGSH reported an EPS of .12, and an EPS of .11 for the last year(2012).

That seems pretty good considering it has triggered the stock to soar from $0.50/share to $10.00+/share.

Now lets take a look at CHLN. In their 4th quarter earnings report, they had reported an EPS of .33, and an astonishing EPS of .47 for the past year!

This is why CHLN is a "Housing Rocket Ready Launch."  This company is in the same business as HGSH, which has been on an insane run the past couple months, and on top of that, their EPS for their last quarter was 3 times higher than HGSH's, and their EPS for the past year was more than 4 times higher.

With an EPS that high, there is no reason why this $2.00 stock should not rushing up to $10.00, just like HGSH, ESPECIALLY since HGSH's EPS is LESS than CHLN's!!!!!

Numbers don't lie. And the numbers are there. There is absolutely NO reason why CHLN should not be cost at least HALF, if not MORE than what HGSH is per share!

In fact there is HARD EVIDENCE on why it should actually cost MORE than HGSH per share!

Again, Numbers Don't Lie, and Neither does EPS.

Make sure to always do your Due Diligence! And be on the watch for this housing rocket to LAUNCH!!!

Price Target: $3.50-$5.00/share